生态经济

中国作为全球最大的能源消费国，能源领域降碳成效直接关系“双碳”目标的实现。近年来，我国围绕能源低碳转型出台了一系列政策文件，但政策文本质量能否有效转化为现实降碳绩效，有待进一步检验。论文以我国144份能源降碳政策文本为研究对象，运用文本挖掘和PMC指数模型构建包含9个一级变量和51个二级变量的能源降碳政策评价体系，对政策目标、政策措施、政策保障和政策类型进行量化测度。在此基础上，进一步将PMC政策指数纳入省级面板固定效应模型，检验政策文本质量对地区碳排放水平的影响，并通过滞后效应检验和稳健性检验考察政策效果的传导特征。研究发现，能源降碳政策文本质量整体呈提升趋势，但在人才措施、能源合作等维度仍存在明显短板；PMC政策指数对地区碳排放水平具有显著负向影响，且PMC政策指数的降碳影响在滞后一期更为明显；产业结构和环境规制强度是影响政策效果实现的重要因素。论文将PMC政策文本评价与面板计量检验相结合，进一步拓展了PMC指数模型在能源降碳政策评价中的应用，为优化能源降碳政策设计和提升政策执行绩效提供了经验证据。

China is the world’s biggest energy consumer， therefore meeting its dual carbon goals is directly tied to the country’s energy sector’s carbon reduction performance. The Chinese government has released a number of policy documents in recent years with the goal of encouraging the shift to low-carbon energy; however， it is still unclear if the quality of these documents can be successfully translated into real carbon reduction performance. This study uses text mining techniques and the policy modeling consistency (PMC) index model to build an evaluation framework consisting of nine primary variables and fifty-one secondary variables， quantitatively evaluating policy objectives， policy measures， policy guarantees， and policy types using 144 energy carbon-reduction policy documents issued in China as the research sample. Based on this， lag-effect and robustness tests are carried out to investigate the transmission characteristics of policy effectiveness， and the PMC policy index is integrated into a provincial panel fixed-effects model to investigate the influence of policy text quality on regional carbon emission levels. The findings show that while there are still significant flaws in areas like talent-related measures and energy cooperation， the general quality of energy carbon-reduction policy texts has improved over time. Regional carbon emission levels are statistically significantly impacted negatively by the PMC policy index， and this effect intensifies with a one-period lag. Furthermore， the degree of environmental control and the industrial structure play a significant role in determining how effective a policy is. This study expands the use of the PMC index model in the assessment of energy carbon-reduction policies by combining PMC-based policy text evaluation with panel econometric analysis. It also offers empirical support for improving policy implementation performance and optimizing policy design in the energy sector.