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减污降碳协同增效是实现美丽中国建设与“双碳”目标的重要路径，其实现有赖于政策工具的有效设计与足够的财政支撑。论文基于2007—2023年中国268个地级及以上城市的面板数据，采用耦合协调度模型构建减污降碳协同增效指数，以等权重法、主成分分析法与TOPSIS-熵权法验证指标构建的稳健性，运用多期DID识别空气质量生态补偿政策的因果效应，并引入双边随机前沿模型分解财政压力对政策效果的激励与约束效应。研究表明，空气质量生态补偿政策显著提升了减污降碳协同增效水平，而财政压力在政策实施过程中总体上削弱了政策的减污降碳协同增效效果。机制检验显示，该政策主要通过降低能源消费强度、提高建成区绿地覆盖率、推动产业结构高级化和促进绿色技术创新发挥作用。异质性分析进一步发现，中部地区因处于产业转型“最优窗口期”而政策边际收益最高，胡焕庸线西北侧区域受生态本底条件约束波动较大。
Abstract：Pollution-carbon-growth synergistic efficiency (PCGSE) constitutes a key pathway toward building a Beautiful China and achieving the dual carbon goals,with its realization contingent upon effective policy design and adequate fiscal support.Using panel data from 268 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2007-2023,this study constructs a PCGSE index via a coupling coordination model (with robustness verified using equal-weight,principal component analysis,and TOPSIS-entropy weight alternatives),employs a staggered difference-in-differences approach to identify the causal effects of the air quality ecological compensation (AQEC) policy,and introduces a two-tier stochastic frontier model to decompose the incentive and constraint mechanisms through which fiscal pressure affects policy effectiveness.The results show that the AQEC policy significantly enhances PCGSE,while fiscal pressure,on the whole,dampens the policy's synergistic potential during implementation.Mechanism tests reveal that the policy operates primarily by reducing energy consumption intensity,expanding green space coverage,advancing industrial structure upgrading,and fostering green technological innovation.Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that central regions achieve the highest marginal policy returns owing to their position at the “optimal window” of industrial transformation,whereas areas northwest of the Hu Huanyong Line exhibit greater volatility owing to ecological baseline constraints.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:F812;X321
引用信息:
[1]陈卓,卜庆轩.财政压力视角下空气质量生态补偿政策与减污降碳协同增效[J].生态经济,2026,42(09):204-218.
基金信息:
河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划项目“农业废弃物烘焙燃料降碳增汇实现模式研究”（25HASTIT022）
2026-09-02
2026-09-02