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水、能、粮、碳是城市农业可持续发展的关键所在，其系统效率反映了城市农业可持续发展中整合利用关键资源、控制环境影响的综合能力。论文基于2004—2024年中国266个地级及以上城市的面板数据对城市“水—能—粮—碳”系统效率进行测算，综合运用动态核密度估计、修正引力模型、社会网络分析、引入GeoShapley的XGBoost-SHAP可解释机器学习模型和PDP分析等方法，系统剖析其空间关联网络结构及驱动因素，为优化中国城市农业发展中的资源配置、迈向农业可持续发展探索了新路径。研究结果表明：(1)中国城市“水—能—粮—碳”系统效率存在显著的时空异质性特征，时间上总体呈稳定趋势，空间上东部城市效率较高，而中西部偏远城市效率较低。(2)“水—能—粮—碳”系统效率的空间关联网络呈现出稳固的非对称层级结构，并表现出显著的功能分化特征。其中，板块Ⅰ扮演净溢出者角色，板块Ⅲ为核心受益者，而板块Ⅱ和Ⅳ则承担了关键的传导中介功能，形成了“溢出→传导→受益”的稳定关联路径，清晰地反映了区域间非对称的效率依赖与利益分配格局。(3)“水—能—粮—碳”系统效率空间关联的形成机制呈非线性与交互特征。自然资源禀赋优势未直接转化为效率优势，社会经济因素具有“阈值效应”，科学技术水平因素的积极作用则有强烈的“条件依赖性”，生态环境的压力增大会整体上削弱网络关联的强度。
Abstract：The efficiency of the water-energy-food-carbon nexus is a critical indicator of a city's comprehensive capability to integrate the utilization of key resources while mitigating environmental impacts,underpinning urban agricultural sustainability.Based on panel data from 266 Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning 2004-2024,this study first measures the urban “water-energy-food-carbon” system efficiency.Employing a comprehensive suite of methods—including dynamic kernel density estimation,a modified gravity model,social network analysis,and an explainable XGBoost-SHAP machine learning model incorporating GeoShapley and Partial Dependence Plot analysis—this study systematically deconstructs the spatial correlation network structure and its driving factors.This research explores new pathways for optimizing resource allocation in China's urban agriculture and advancing towards sustainability.The findings indicate that:(1) China's urban “water-energy-food-carbon” system efficiency exhibits significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity;while remaining generally stable over time,it presents a distinct spatial pattern with higher efficiency in eastern cities and lower efficiency in central and western inland cities.(2) The spatial correlation network of the “water-energy-food-carbon” system efficiency presents a stable asymmetric hierarchical structure and shows significant functional differentiation characteristics.Among them,Block I plays the role of a net spiller,block Ⅲ is the core beneficiary,while blocks Ⅱ and Ⅳ undertake the key conduction intermediary function,forming a stable correlation path of “spill-over → conduction → benefit”,clearly reflecting the asymmetric efficiency dependence and benefit distribution pattern among regions.(3) The formation mechanism of the spatial correlation network is characterized by non-linearity and interaction effects.Natural resource endowment advantages do not directly translate into efficiency advantages;socio-economic factors exhibit a “threshold effect”;the positive impact of technological advancement is strongly “conditionally dependent”;and mounting ecological and environmental pressures weaken the overall strength of network linkages.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:F426.2;F326.11;X321
引用信息:
[1]唐婷婷,李斌,邢梦昆.中国城市“水—能—粮—碳”系统效率的空间关联网络及其驱动因素研究[J].生态经济,2026,42(09):146-165.
基金信息:
广西高校人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“新质生产力支撑中国城市转型发展的动力与机制研究”（2025JDZD019）; 广西哲学社会科学规划课题青年项目“智能技术嵌入平陆运河经济带先进制造业区域空间重塑的机制与路径研究”（25JB142）
2026-09-02
2026-09-02