生态经济

碳排放权交易作为新时期“双碳”目标下低碳经济绿色转型的政策工具，对筑牢国家生态安全屏障具有重要作用。论文以碳排放权交易试点的设立为切入点，利用双重差分方法和中介效应模型，探究了碳排放权交易的减排效应，并从技术、能源、交通和财政四个方面给出了减排路径。研究表明：碳排放权交易具有显著的减排效应，在经过识别假定和稳健性检验后结论依旧成立。同时，从动态效应来看，减排效应在政策实施后效果明显且具有逐年递增的态势。区域异质性分析表明，减排效应在东部地区以及高经济发展水平、高基础设施水平和高人力资本水平的地区更为显著。机制分析表明，碳排放权交易通过提升技术创新水平、调整能源结构、改善交通网络结构和减少财政支出间接减少了二氧化碳排放，其中能源结构的中介效应最强。

As a policy instrument for the green transformation of a low-carbon economy under the “dual-carbon” goals of the new era, carbon emissions trading plays a vital role in strengthening the national ecological security shield. Taking the launch of the pilot carbon-trading scheme as the entry point, the paper employs a difference-in-differences approach combined with a mediationeffects model to investigate the emission-reduction impact of carbon trading and proposes mitigation pathways from four dimensions: technology, energy, transport, and fiscal policy research shows: Carbon emission trading has a significant emission reduction effect, and the conclusions are still valid after identification assumptions and robustness tests. At the same time, from the perspective of dynamic effects,the emission reduction effect is obvious after the implementation of the policy and has a trend of increasing year by year. The analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that the emission reduction effect is more significant in the eastern region, and regions with high economic development, high infrastructure and high human capital. Mechanism analysis shows that carbon emission rights trading has indirectly reduced carbon dioxide emissions through improving technological innovation, adjusting energy structure, improving transportation network structure, and reducing fiscal expenditures, among which the energy structure has the strongest intermediary effect.