| 626 | 0 | 106 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
气候变化与城市生态系统失衡效应叠加，使城市遭受的不利影响和生态安全风险显著增加。气候政策作为重要的应对手段，探讨其不确定性对提高城市生态安全水平和适应气候变化有重要的现实意义。论文基于DPSIR框架构建生态安全评价指标体系，利用熵权法测算中国266个地级市生态安全水平，并运用面板固定效应模型检验气候政策不确定性对城市生态安全水平的影响及作用机理。结果表明：(1)气候政策不确定性在整体上对城市生态安全水平具有显著正向影响，且该结论在多项稳健性检验中保持一致；(2)不同城市生态安全水平受气候政策不确定性影响程度存在显著异质性，生态安全困境较大的城市、中部和西部城市、大城市和特大城市、中等和高经济发展水平城市、低等和中等环境规制强度城市生态安全水平受益较为明显；资源型和非资源型城市均受正向影响，但前者影响程度更高；(3)绿色技术创新能力和经济密度是发挥气候政策不确定性效应的关键渠道。最后提出了气候政策调整与改进的政策建议。
Abstract：The compounded effects of climate change and the imbalance of urban ecosystems have significantly increased the adverse impacts and ecological security risks faced by cities.As a critical policy instrument in addressing these challenges,examining the uncertainty associated with climate policy holds substantial practical significance for enhancing urban ecological security level and improving cities’ capacity to adapt to climate change.This study constructs an ecological security evaluation index system based on the DPSIR framework and employs the entropy weight method to measure the ecological security levels of 266 prefecture-level cities in China.A panel fixed effects model is then applied to examine the influence and underlying mechanisms of CPU on urban ecological security level.The results reveal the following findings:(1) CPU exerts a significantly positive effect on urban ecological security overall,and this conclusion remains robust across multiple robustness tests.(2) There exists significant heterogeneity in the degree of impact across cities.Cities experiencing more severe ecological security challenges,those located in central and western regions,large and mega cities,cities with medium to high levels of economic development,and cities with low or medium levels of environmental regulation,benefit more notably in terms of ecological security improvement.Both resource-based and non-resource-based cities are positively affected,with the impact being more pronounced in the former.(3) Green technological innovation capacity and economic density are identified as key channels through which CPU influences urban ecological security.Finally,the study offers policy recommendations for the adjustment and improvement of climate policy.
[1]张卓群，姚鸣奇，郑艳.气候适应型城市建设试点政策对城市韧性的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2024，34(4)：1-12.
[2]冉明东，郑远，王成龙.极端气候风险对企业异地投资的影响研究[J].管理学报，2024，21(11)：1708-1717.
[3]ABBASI K R,ZHANG Q,ALOTAIBI B S,et al.Toward sustainable development goals 7 and 13:A comprehensive policy framework to combat climate change[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2024,105:107415.
[4]俞孔坚.气候韧性国土空间和城市的中国模式[J].城市规划，2025，49(1)：4-15.
[5]LIN B,ZHAO H.Tracking policy uncertainty under climate change[J].Resources Policy,2023,83:103699.
[6]汪顺，余璐，雷玲.气候政策不确定性与中国企业升级困境[J].财经研究，2024，50(2)：123-138.
[7]BROWN L R.Building a sustainable society[M].New York:Norton,1981.
[8]张银花，温娜，尚艳春.基于PSR模型的鄂尔多斯市草原生态安全评价研究[J].环境与发展，2024，36(5)：15-23.
[9]刘耀彬，邓伟凤，骆康，等.环鄱阳湖城市群生态安全对产业结构升级的效应研究[J].生态经济，2023，39(11)：76-86.
[10]ZHANG R,WANG C,XIONG Y.Ecological security assessment of China based on the rressure-state-response framework[J].Ecological Indicators,2023,154:110647.
[11]钞小静，周文慧.黄河中上游西北地区生态安全的综合评价、体系构建及推动机制[J].宁夏社会科学，2022(4)：115-125.
[12]REN X,ZHANG X,YAN C,et al.Climate policy uncertainty and firm-level total factor productivity:Evidence from China[J].Energy Economics,2022,113:106209.
[13]REN X,LI J,HE F,et al.Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets:Evidence from time-varying granger tests[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2023,173:113058.
[14]SHANG Y,HAN D,GOZGOR G,et al.The impact of climate policy uncertainty on renewable and non-renewable energy demand in the United States[J].Renewable Energy,2022,197:654-667.
[15]NIU S.ZHANG J,LUO R,et al.How does climate policy uncertainty affect green technology innovation at the corporate level?New evidence from China[J].Environmental Research,2023,237:117003.
[16]LIU J,DENG G,YAN J,et al.Unraveling the impact of climate policy uncertainty on corporate default risk:Evidence from China[J].Finance Research Letters,2023,58:104385.
[17]丁金华，汪大庆，钱晶.城市扩张情景下苏南水网景观生态风险评价与生态安全格局构建：以苏州白蚬湖片区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境，2024，33(9)：2059-2070.
[18]李大强，张飞云，周红涛，等.基于生态系统服务供需的新疆天山北坡城市群生态安全格局构建[J].中国环境科学，2025，45(8)：4706-4714.
[19]YANG G,GUI Q,LIU J,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of ecological security in China based on DPSIR-DEA model:A case study of the Three Gorges reservoir area[J].Ecological Indicators,2023,154:110777.
[20]肖钊富，李瑞，吕宛青.成渝城市群旅游生态安全时空格局演化研究[J].世界地理研究，2023，32(10)：122-133.
[21]邓世成，吴玉鸣.低碳城市试点政策对中国资源型城市绿色转型发展的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境，2024，34(6)：65-79.
[22]ROSERO C G,RAMIREZ J,SAEZ D.Determinants of innovation:The role of the agglomeration economies[J].Revista Economía y Política,2020.DOI:https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n31.2020.04.
[23]GE X,XU J,XIE Y,et al.Evaluation and dynamic evolution of eco-efficiency of resource-based cities:A case study of typical resource-based cities in China[J].Sustainability,2021,13(12):6802.
[24]陆春华，李虹.碳试点政策、绿色创新和企业生产效率[J].经济问题探索，2023(4)：38-60.
[25]ZHU H,JIANG S.Navigating urban sustainable development:Exploring the impact of low carbon policies on the urban ecological carrying capacity[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2024,469:143162.
[26]FU T,JIAN Z.Corruption pays off:How environmental regulations promote corporate innovation in a developing country[J].Ecological Economics,2021,183:106969.
[27]LI L,HUANG X,WU D,et al.Optimization of ecological security patterns considering both natural and social disturbances in China’s largest urban agglomeration[J].Ecological Engineering,2022,180:106647.
[28]WANG H,BAO C.Scenario modeling of ecological security index using system dynamics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration[J].Ecological Indicators,2021,125:107613.
[29]FU X.Impacts of the pilot policy for carbon emissions trading on pollution reduction in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2024,468:142878.
[30]马小雯，郭精军.黄河流域生态安全评价及障碍因素研究[J].统计与决策，2023，39(8)：63-68.
[31]MA L,BO J,LI X,et al.Identifying key landscape pattern indices influencing the ecological security of inland river basin:The middle and lower reaches of Shule River Basin as an example[J].Science of the Total Environment,2019,674:424-438.
[32]NATHWANI J,LU X,WU C,et al.Quantifying security and resilience of Chinese coastal urban ecosystems[J].Science of the Total Environment,2019,672:51-60.
[33]SOBHANI P,ESMAEILZADEH H,WOLF I D,et al.Evaluating the ecological security of ecotourism in protected area based on the DPSIR model[J].Ecological Indicators,2023,155:110957.
[34]楚尔鸣，孙红果，李逸飞.智慧城市建设对生态环境韧性的影响研究[J].管理学刊，2023，36(6)：21-37.
[35]MA Y,LIU Z,MA D,et al.A news-based climate policy uncertainty index for China[J].Scientific Data,2023,10(1):881.
[36]CHEN G,WANG S,JING D,et al.China climate policy uncertainty index:Construction,analysis and application prospects[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2024,20(3):361-372.
[37]LIANG L,LI Y.How does government support promote digital economy development in China?The mediating role of regional innovation ecosystem resilience[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2023,188:122328.
[38]SUN M,LI X,YANG R,et al.Comprehensive partitions and different strategies based on ecological security and economic development in Guizhou Province,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2020,274:122794.
[39]LIU Y,ZHU J,LI E Y,et al.Environmental regulation,green technological innovation,and eco-efficiency:The case of Yangtze river economic belt in China[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2020,155:119993.
[40]LIU M,SHAN Y,LI Y.Study on the effect of carbon trading regulation on green innovation and heterogeneity analysis from China[J].Energy Policy,2022,171:113290.
[41]ZHANG M,YAN T,GAO W,et al.How does environmental regulation affect real green technology innovation and strategic green technology innovation?[J].Science of the Total Environment,2023,872:162221.
[42]LIU D,YIN Z.Spatial-temporal pattern evolution and mechanism model of tourism ecological security in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,139:108933.
[43]JIAO Y,SU M,JI C,et al.Cleaner production instruments assisting sustainable transition at urban scale:A case study of Dongguan,a typical manufacturing city in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2019,210:1449-1461.
[44]CAO H,LI M,QIN F,et al.Economic development,fiscal ecological compensation,and ecological environment quality[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2022,19(8):4725.
[45]AHMED Z,ASGHAR M M,MALIK M N,et al.Moving towards a sustainable environment:The dynamic linkage between natural resources,human capital,urbanization,economic growth,and ecological footprint in China[J].Resources Policy,2020,67:101677.
[46]CAMPAGNA D,CAPERNA G,MONTALTO V.Does culture make a better citizen?Exploring the relationship between cultural and civic participation in Italy[J].Social Indicators Research,2020,149(2):657-686.
[47]TIAN S,ZHANG Y,XU Y,et al.Urban ecological security assessment and path regulation for ecological protection:A case study of Shenzhen,China[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,145:109717.
[48]贾灿，王卓，李文琢.西部大开发视域下三线建设对西部城市经济发展的影响[J].经济体制改革，2025(4)：58-66.
[49]陈伟.新时代西部大开发进程中的国家生态安全屏障[J].中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版)，2024，44(10)：89-101，184-185.
[50]QIANG Q,JIAN C.Natural resource endowment,institutional quality and China’s regional economic growth[J].Resources Policy,2020,66:101644.
[51]杨怡康，蒋毓琪，田文博.黄河流域资源型城市碳生态安全与高质量发展耦合协调研究[J].人民黄河，2025，47(5)：8-14.
[52]ZOU Y,WANG S,LUO X,et al.A new multivariate index for ecological security assessment in the China-Myanmar border region[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2024,364:121447.
[53]曾刚，陆琳忆，何金廖.生态创新对资源型城市产业结构与工业绿色效率的影响[J].资源科学，2021，43(1)：94-103.
[54]黎桂妤，王曙明，段宏波.基于IAM期望输出的气候政策鲁棒评估[J].系统工程理论与实践，2024，45(7)：2188-2201.
[55]CHEN S,YAO S.Evaluation and dynamic prediction of ecological security from the perspective of sustainable development:A case study of Shaanxi Province,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2022,29:42331-42346.
[56]扎恩哈尔·杜曼，孙慧.绿色技术创新对城市生态效率空间溢出和门槛效应分析[J].统计与决策，2022，38(14)：169-173.
[57]TANG L,LIANG G,GU G,et al.Study on the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics,patterns,and driving mechanisms of ecological environment of the ecological security barriers on China’s Land Borders[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2023,103:107267.
基本信息:
中图分类号:X321;P467
引用信息:
[1]李志刚,杨雅麟,黄雪峰,等.气候政策不确定性对城市生态安全的影响——基于266个城市的实证分析[J].生态经济,2026,42(04):198-208.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金西部项目“我国重点城镇群生态功能区生态重要性评估与配套政策研究”(19FJY003)
2026-01-28
2026-01-28
2026-01-28