生态经济

在采用探索性空间数据分析方法分析地区碳排放强度空间聚集特征的基础上，基于空间溢出效应从理论和经验两个方面系统分析了环境规制对于碳排放强度的影响路径。理论研究发现，在空间溢出效应的影响下，环境规制对于碳减排的影响路径是非线性的，这种非线性表现为即期影响不显著甚至为负，但是长期则显著为正。经验研究则发现省际碳排放强度之间具有空间正相关性，且呈现稳中有降的趋势，这表明各省份碳排放强度存在明显集聚特征。与此同时，虽然静态空间滞后模型的估计结果表明空间溢出效应不利于发挥环境规制对于即期碳排放强度的抑制作用，但动态空间滞后模型结果则显示环境规制最终会在长期内抑制本地碳排放强度的提高。这说明进一步强化碳减排的目标约束、持续加强环境规制是有利于我国“双碳”目标顺利实现的。

Based on the exploratory spatial data analysis method to analyze the spatial aggregation characteristics of regional carbon emission intensity, this paper systematically analyzes the impact path of environmental regulation on carbon emission intensity from both theoretical and empirical aspects based on spatial spillover effect. Theoretical research found that under the influence of spatial spillover effect, the impact path of environmental regulation on carbon emission reduction is nonlinear. This nonlinearity shows that the immediate impact is not significant or even negative,but it is significantly positive in the long run. Empirical studies have found that there is a spatial positive correlation between provincial carbon emission intensity, and there is a steady downward trend, which indicates that there are obvious agglomeration characteristics of carbon emission intensity in various provinces. At the same time, although the estimation results of the static spatial lag model show that the spatial spillover effect is not conducive to the inhibition of environmental regulation on the spot carbon emission intensity, the results of the dynamic spatial lag model show that environmental regulation will eventually inhibit the improvement of local carbon emission intensity in the long term.This shows that further strengthening the target constraints of carbon emission reduction and continuously strengthening environmental regulation are conducive to the smooth realization of the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.