生态经济

以西南四省（市）（云南、四川、贵州、重庆）为研究对象，基于2012—2023年面板数据，构建农业经济—生态环境双系统评价体系，采用“耦合协调度—灰色关联度—障碍度”组合方法，探究绿色低碳转型背景下双系统耦合协调规律与核心障碍。结果显示：耦合协调度呈“严重失调—勉强协调—优质协调”三阶段跃升，2019年西南四省（市）人均GDP均值突破5.6万元，成为系统转型关键拐点，2023年协调度达0.995；驱动因子中，水土流失治理面积作用最强（平均关联度0.909），有效灌溉面积次之（0.842）；2019年障碍因子发生结构性转变，人均粮食产量（2023年障碍度32.17%）取代农药施用量成为首要障碍；四省（市）形成“重庆全域均衡、四川地形适配、云南跨境协同、贵州生态突破”差异化路径。研究揭示核心障碍已从“污染制约”转向“产量安全”，2019年是系统转型关键节点，明确绿色发展新矛盾焦点。据此提出“稳产量、促协同、降排放”对策，为破解西南地区“发展—保护—安全”矛盾提供理论与实践支撑。

Taking the four provinces (municipalities) in Southwest China (Yunnan， Sichuan， Guizhou， Chongqing) as the research object， based on the panel data from 2012 to 2023， this paper constructs a dual-system evaluation index system of agricultural economy and ecological environment. Using the combined method of “coupling coordination degree-grey relational analysis-obstacle degree”， it explores the coupling coordination laws and core obstacles of the two systems under the background of green and low-carbon transition. The results show that the coupling coordination degree presents a three-stage leap from “severe imbalance” to “barely coordination” and then to “high-quality coordination”. The average per capita GDP of the four provinces (municipalities) exceeded 56 000 yuan in 2019， which became the key inflection point of system transformation， and the coordination degree reached 0.995 in 2023. Among the driving factors， the area of soil and water loss control has the strongest effect (average correlation degree 0.909)， followed by the effective irrigation area (0.842). In 2019， the obstacle factors underwent a structural change: per capita grain output (obstacle degree 32.17% in 2023) replaced pesticide application amount as the primary obstacle. The four provinces (municipalities) have formed differentiated paths: Balanced development in Chongqing， terrain-adapted development in Sichuan， cross-border coordinated development in Yunnan， and ecological breakthrough development in Guizhou. The study reveals that the core obstacle has shifted from “pollution restriction” to “production security”， and 2019 is the key node of system transformation， clarifying the new contradiction focus of green development. Accordingly， the countermeasures of “stabilizing output， promoting coordination， and reducing emissions” are proposed to provide theoretical and practical support for resolving the contradiction of “development-protection-security” in Southwest China.