生态经济

新质生产力是推动高质量发展和中国区域经济增长的关键动力。论文基于京津冀城市群2011—2021年的数据，运用熵值法测度了新质生产力发展水平，并利用Dagum基尼系数及分解法、Kernel密度估计、Moran指数以及障碍度模型对京津冀新质生产力发展水平进行时空动态演进和障碍因子分析。结果发现：（1）京津冀城市群新质生产力发展水平整体上呈逐年上升趋势，京津冀中部地区具有领先优势，南部和北部地区则相对落后，其差距根源在于区域间和区域内不平衡。（2）京津冀三大区域存在着明显的空间异质性，同时城市间新质生产力发展水平表现出高—高和低—低的聚集模式。（3）废物治理能力、科技人力投入、专利数量、新产品开发、智能化水平和高技术产业是制约京津冀新质生产力发展水平提升的关键障碍因子。

New quality productive forces are a key driving of high-quality development and regional economic growth in China. Using data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration between 2011 and 2021, this study employs the entropy method to measure the development level of new quality productive forces. Additionally, the Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, Moran's index,and the obstacle degree model are applied to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle factors influencing this development.The results indicate that:(1) The development level of new quality productive forces in the region shows a steady annual increase,with the central region leading, while the southern and northern regions lag behind due to inter-regional and intra-regional imbalances.(2) Significant spatial heterogeneity exists across the three major regions, with cities exhibiting high-high and low-low clustering patterns in development levels.(3) Key obstacles include waste treatment capacity, scientific and technological manpower investment, patent output, new product development, intelligentization levels, and high-tech industry performance. These findings highlight critical barriers to enhancing new quality productive forces in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, offering insights for targeted policy interventions.