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论文聚焦中国“双碳”目标下协同推进降碳与经济增长的重大挑战，基于DICE理论框架构建了包含中国经济结构与环境特征的本土化动态一般均衡模型，评估了不同减排政策路径对气候变化和经济发展的长期影响，并识别出兼顾环境效益与经济成本的最优策略。通过模拟中国40年气候与经济的动态互动路径，研究发现：(1)在无减排、线性减排、最优减排及激进减排四种政策模式中，最优减排策略在平衡长期经济损失与环境效益、最大化社会福利方面表现最佳，其动态调整路径与中国“双碳”目标最为契合。(2)激进减排虽环境效果最优，但可能引致显著的短期经济成本，而无减排措施将导致不可持续的长期气候损害与经济后果。研究结论可为中国制定与实施“双碳”目标下的气候与经济协调发展政策提供决策参考。
Abstract：Focusing on the major challenge of simultaneously achieving carbon reduction and economic growth under China's dual carbon goals,this study develops a localized dynamic general equilibrium model based on the DICE framework that incorporates China's economic structure and environmental characteristics.The model evaluates the long-term impacts of different emission reduction policy paths on climate change and economic development,aiming to identify the optimal strategy that balances environmental benefits with economic costs.Simulating forty years of dynamic interactions between climate and the economy in China,the study finds that:(1) Among the four policy scenarios,no reduction,linear reduction,optimal reduction,and aggressive reduction,the optimal reduction strategy best balances long-term economic losses with environmental benefits and maximizes social welfare,with a dynamic adjustment path most aligned with China's dual carbon goals.(2) While aggressive reduction achieves the best environmental outcome,it may incur significant short-term economic costs,whereas the absence of reduction leads to unsustainable long-term climate and economic damages.These findings offer decision-making insights for policies that coordinate climate action with economic development under China's dual carbon goals.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:F124.5;X321
引用信息:
[1]伏刚.“双碳”目标下中国减排与发展的平衡路径研究——基于DICE模型[J].生态经济,2026,42(09):1-10.
2026-09-02
2026-09-02